Romania’s debt-to-GDP ratio drops below 60% after GDP revision

Romania Insider · 13.10.2026, 06:34:00

The debt-to-GDP ratio reached 59.8%, up from 58.9% at the end of 2025, based on Romania Insider calculations using revised GDP figures. The dynamics of public debt and the indebtedness ratio during the first seven months of 2026 reveal three notable aspects: the entire revised debt-to-GDP trajectory is now below the 60% threshold; the ratio increased by only 0.9 percentage points during the period; and the entire increase in public debt was generated by debt denominated in foreign currency, while debt denominated in local currency remained broadly unchanged. The statistics office revised upwards 2024–2026 GDP, particularly in nominal terms. On October 9, the statistics office announced revised Q2 GDP figures, as well as revised semi-permanent figures for 2025 and permanent figures for 2024. The revisions to real GDP growth were modest: from 0.7% to 0.8% for 2024, from 0.9% to 1.1% for 2025, and from -0.7% to -0.6% for H1 2026. However, GDP deflators were also revised upwards, resulting in increases in nominal GDP of 0.4% for 2024, 0.7% for 2025 and 1.3% for H1 2026. GDP revision lowers debt-to-GDP ratios by around 0.4 percentage points. Following the revision, the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2025 fell from 59.3% to 58.9%. More importantly, the ratio at the end of March dropped from 60.1% - the first time it had exceeded the 60% threshold - to 59.7%. The ratio at the end of July also fell, from 60.4% to 59.8%, and could decrease further once Q3 GDP data are released. The downward revisions are not large enough to alter the underlying macroeconomic picture, but the 60% threshold has practical implications. Exceeding it triggers measures the government must undertake, including a debt-reduction plan to be implemented from the semester following the one in which the threshold was breached. The debt-to-GDP ratio has risen relatively moderately so far this year. The 0.9 percentage-point increase between the end of 2025 and the end of July compares with a rise of 4.1 p