Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk

Axios · 10/18/2026, 12:10:07 PM

Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle , and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s. Why it matters: Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory. Kansas - 1932 Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who has significantly outraised the incumbent GOP senator. The two are neck-and-neck in the polls , and Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup. A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill was reelected in 1932. Texas - 1988 Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) a real run for his money in the Senate race. Talarico generally leads in polls by low single digits. Cook rates it a tossup. Texas has been a consistent heartbreaker for Democrats in recent cycles. They last won a Senate seat in the state with Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. South Carolina - 1998 Polls have routinely shown Republican Sen. Darline Graham , who was appointed to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham following his death in July, leading Democrat Annie Andrews by just a few percentage points. Andrews, like other Democratic Senate candidates, has raised colossal sums , while Graham has struggled as a political neophyte. Still, Cook rates the race as "likely Republican." The state has gone Republican in every U.S. Senate election since longtime Democrat Fritz Hollings was last reelected in 1998. Between the lines: Democrat Troy Jackson , if he defeats Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine next month, would be the first registered Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Maine since 1988. That's a bit of a technicality: Independent Sen. Angus King has caucused with Democrats since he was first elected in 20