ING: Romania’s economy to rebound in 2027 on consumption, but fiscal risks persist

Romania Insider · 23.10.2026, 06:49:00

The leu is expected to depreciate further in 2027, following a weak performance this year, but the main risks to the exchange rate, sovereign borrowing costs and credit rating stem from political uncertainty and the trajectory of the budget deficit. “Romania’s macroeconomic adjustment is finally starting to become visible, but progress remains vulnerable to political uncertainty. The budget deficit is shrinking, and the country has maintained its investment-grade rating,” ING Bank Romania economists Valentin Tataru and Stefan Posea said in the bank’s latest regional report, cited by Profit.ro . However, Romania still has a negative rating outlook and is only one notch above speculative grade, leaving little room for mistakes, the economists note. “The political deadlock risks overshadowing fiscal progress and keeping the sovereign risk premium high. With the economy having been quasi-stagnant for almost three years, continued consolidation will be difficult,” they added. The report appears to have been drafted before the appointment of Romania’s new government. ING said a political agreement on the fiscal framework for the next two years could improve the rating outlook, strengthen confidence and reduce financing costs. The actual political normalisation achieved by the minority Social Democrat (PSD) cabinet of Luca Niculescu and the six-month political agreement are weaker than the "political agreement on fiscal framework" assumed by ING. “Romania’s economy remains stuck in a low-growth mode,” the economists said, after GDP fell by 0.8% in H1 2026. In 2024 and 2025, the economy grew by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. ING forecasted a GDP contraction of 0.5% this year, amid declining private consumption, which made a negative contribution of 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in H1. Services and industry contracted, while construction and public investment financed by EU funds supported economic activity. Consumption to normalise as pension and salary indexation resum