Hill leaders brace for miserable 2027

Axios · 10/16/2026, 7:47:24 PM

Have some sympathy for Capitol Hill's leaders next year, no matter who wins in November. 😩 Why it matters: The next Congress promises a thousand different ways to be miserable. And three of the big four leaders are expected to receive a two-year contract extension, with guaranteed long nights, bad days and short tempers. The fate of the fourth — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — rests on the outcome of the election. 🤕 The best (and worst) news for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is that the job as party leader is likely his if he wants it, even if Republicans lose the majority. Like his first two years as leader, Thune's next two will be marked by constant second-guessing , or worse, from a president who commands his party, crushes his opponents and questions Thune's courage . Then there's the GOP base. MAGA influencers are seething over Thune's reluctance to try to nuke the filibuster and jam through a voter-ID bill . Between the lines: Four of Thune's confidants — DHS Secretary (and former senator) Markwayne Mullin and Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have left or are leaving the building. A fresh class of House conservatives will arrive in the Senate. They're likely to want to move fast and break things. The intrigue: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has not announced a third attempt to lead his party, but plenty of Republicans on the Hill suspect he will. Scott notably backtracked on his support for Thune in September. But Thune doesn't have to worry about his number two. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — who would be the top contender if Thune stepped down — has doubled down on his support. ⚠️ Thune's relationship with Speaker Johnson has been rocky throughout the year . If Republicans lose the House majority, Thune could find himself coordinating and strategizing with a new House leader. Most of Johnson's colleagues don't expect him to stay if the House flips. However, in the campaign's final we