Board of Directors of Romania’s central bank ups inflation forecast for 2026

Romania Insider · 21.10.2026, 10:45:00

The annual inflation rate will increase by the end of 2026 and exceed the 6.1% previously forecast by the National Bank of Romania, according to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on October 8, published on Tuesday, October 20. Members of the BNR Board of Directors said the new economic data indicate a deterioration in the short-term inflation outlook compared with the estimates presented in August. The previous forecast anticipated an annual rate of 6.1% in December 2026, followed by a gradual decline to 2.8% in June 2028. New factors, particularly the rising fuel and energy prices, higher raw material prices, and movements in the leu exchange rate, may lead to increased inflation. “Board members noted that, according to the new data and analyses, the annual inflation rate will follow an upward trajectory until the end of the current year, thus exceeding the figures in the medium-term forecast from August 2026, which anticipated it reaching 6.1% in December 2026 and subsequently declining to 2.8% in June 2028,” the document stated, cited by Digi24 . The central bank warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could intensify inflationary pressures, including through higher prices for imported goods. Developments in international oil and raw material markets therefore continue to represent a significant source of uncertainty for Romania’s economy. “At the same time, it was agreed that the balance of risks induced by supply-side factors remains tilted upward in the short term, particularly given the uncertainties surrounding the prices of crude oil and other raw materials in the context of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, as well as their potential direct and indirect effects domestically, including through the prices of certain imported intermediate and finished goods,” according to the document. However, there are also factors that could limit price increases. Board members highlighted the favorable results recorded this year in certain cr